How to read this tool

A screening planner for California real estate development entitlements. It produces a low-high planning band for two phases — entitlement (zoning approvals, CEQA review, conditions of approval) and permits-to-RTI (building plan check through ready-to-issue construction). When the optional pre-entitlement / DD window is enabled, that adds a third phase upstream covering acquisition diligence.

The output is an order-of-magnitude estimate, not a jurisdictional commitment or statutory deadline.

Every duration is shown as a range — 24–39 months totalmeans “expect somewhere in this window,” not “guaranteed by month 39.” The low end assumes the path of least resistance; the high end assumes the typical sticking points all hit. Real outcomes mostly fall inside the band; “over high” usually signals an exogenous event (litigation, agency capacity collapse, market-driven scope change).

When a calendar start date is set, the timeline also shows a projected “complete by [date range]” — same caveat, that's a projection, not a commitment.

Modifiers add time to the baseline. Each one has an “applies to” — entitlement-only mods extend the entitlement bucket, RTI-only mods extend the RTI bucket, and total-once mods (coastal zone, FHSZ, dual jurisdiction) add to total once. There's also a parallel-informational mode for risks that don't add expected time but should be tracked (litigation exposure, tribal consultation, etc.).

The active modifier panel shows the math transparently: each modifier's contribution + a “removing saves N–M mo” sensitivity line so the partner sees what's negotiable.

Some ministerial pathways (SB 35, AB 2011, SHRA, ADU streamlining) have statutory review windows — the jurisdiction has 60 / 90 / 30 days to respond, depending on the path. The tool surfaces the headline number for the active ministerial pathway as a callout panel.

Important:missing a statutory clock typically means “deemed approved” under HAA / PSA, but that's a legal lever to invoke, not an automatic outcome. Statutory clocks reset on completeness determinations and amendments. Don't treat the headline number as a commitment — verify against current statute language.

Each active modifier shows its low–high range and a green “removing saves N–M mo from total” line. Use it during DD to identify which exposures are worth negotiating away. If the planning band is 24–39 mo and removing the coastal modifier saves 4–9 mo, the question becomes: is there a legal or design path to avoid coastal exposure, and what does the band look like without it?

When monthly carry cost is set, the sensitivity line also shows dollar savings — “removing saves 4–9 mo / $100K–$225K carry from total.”

Optional. When enabled, adds a pre-entitlement bucket upstream of entitlement covering LOI through escrow close. Configurable as a single days slider (default 60 days) or as a sub-segment breakdown (LOI / DD / Close). Sub-segments are the source of truth when enabled — adjust each separately.

The pre-ent bucket renders in days, not months, since DD windows are typically measured in days. Modifiers can still attach to it, though the application semantics are conservative — most modifiers are time-additive to entitlement or RTI, not pre-ent.

Optional dollar input. When set, the tool translates the planning band into total carry exposure ($X–$Y at $Z/mo) and adds dollar savings to each modifier sensitivity line. Distinct from project total cost — this is just monthly soft-cost burn during the planning phase. Useful for partner deliverables since “8 months saved” is more concrete as “$200K saved.”

Stack 2–3 scenarios as parallel timeline bars with deltas vs. an anchor scenario. Useful for “what if we go ministerial” framing. The anchor is the first selected; remaining scenarios show as +3–5 mo longer or −2 mo shorter against the anchor. Each scenario carries its own carry cost, so dollar deltas across paths are visible.

As deals close out, mark saved scenarios as Completed and capture actual entitlement + RTI months. The tool computes variance against the planning band: within band (prediction held), +N over high (band undershot), or −N under low (band overshot). Over time, this turns the saved scenarios list into a personal calibration record — patterns in over-high variance flag jurisdictions or modifiers worth recalibrating.

Lost scenarios (deals not pursued) are tracked separately and don't contribute to variance stats.

The defaults reflect SB / Central Coast experience. To customize: clone a preset, edit the baselines and branch floors to match your jurisdiction's typical performance, save edits with a “reason for edit” note (versioning is preserved). Modifier library is also editable — add custom modifiers with your own time ranges and sources.

Saved scenarios persist locally to this device. JSON export round-trips full state for sharing or backup across devices.

CEQA

California Environmental Quality Act. Required environmental review for discretionary entitlements. Tiers from Categorical Exemption (fastest) to Mitigated Negative Declaration (MND, typical) to Environmental Impact Report (EIR, slowest).

MND / EIR

Mitigated Negative Declaration / Environmental Impact Report. CEQA document types. EIRs add 8–18+ months over MNDs.

RTI

Ready-to-Issue. Final state of building permit plan check — corrections cleared, fees paid, permit ready to issue. The end of the planning phase before construction starts.

PSA

Permit Streamlining Act. Statutory framework setting deadlines for action on entitlement applications. Foundation for “deemed approved” arguments when jurisdictions miss windows.

HAA

Housing Accountability Act. Constrains jurisdictions from denying or downsizing qualifying housing without specific findings. Key tool for projects that meet objective standards.

SB 35 / AB 2011 / SHRA / SB 423

Ministerial / streamlined pathways for qualifying housing. Statutory clocks (60 / 90 / 30 days) bound jurisdictional review. SB 423 extends and replaces SB 35 in many contexts.

ADU streamlining

State-mandated ministerial review for accessory dwelling units. 60-day clock; subjective standards prohibited.

FHSZ

Fire Hazard Severity Zone. CalFIRE designation. Adds permit conditions, defensible space requirements, and review steps in entitlement and RTI.

ALUC

Airport Land Use Commission. Regional review body for projects within airport influence areas. Adds an extra layer of review with its own timeline.

Coastal Zone / CDP

Coastal Development Permit. Required for projects in the Coastal Zone. CDPs are appealable to the California Coastal Commission, which can extend timelines significantly.

Discretionary vs. ministerial

Discretionary entitlements involve subjective review (planning commission, design review, conditional use permits). Ministerial pathways apply objective standards only and have statutory clocks.

Branch floor

A computed minimum applied to the RTI bucket based on the entitlement branch (discretionary entitlements typically carry conditions of approval into plan check; ministerial pathways still require checkbox compliance review).

Total once vs. per-bucket modifiers

Most modifiers extend a specific bucket (entitlement or RTI). Total-once modifiers (coastal zone, dual jurisdiction, FHSZ) extend total project duration once, regardless of which bucket “owns” the delay.

Planning band

The low–high range of expected duration. Not a deadline, not a commitment. Most outcomes fall within the band; outliers usually have an identifiable exogenous cause.